How it works
Sidefoot is a research tool, not a bookmaker. It never places bets. It looks for football matches where the bookmaker's price looks too generous compared with our own estimate.
1.Odds are just a chance in disguise
Odds of 2.00 mean the bookmaker thinks something has about a 50% chance (1 ÷ 2.00). Odds of 4.00 ≈ 25%. We call that the market chance.
2.We make our own estimate
For every match in the Premier League, Bundesliga, La Liga, Ligue 1 and Eredivisie, the model looks at:
- Team strength (Elo): every team has a rating that goes up when they beat expectations and down when they don't. Big wins count more.
- Recent chance quality (xG): are they creating and conceding good chances lately, not just scoring lucky goals?
- Who's missing: injuries and confirmed line-ups. Losing a key player lowers the team's chance.
- The market itself: our number is blended 60/40 with the bookmaker's, so it never drifts too far into fantasy.
3.Edge = our chance minus the bookmaker's
If we say a team wins 60% of the time and the odds imply 50%, that's a +10% edge: the price is better than it should be. The pick is always the result (Home, Draw or Away) with the biggest positive edge. Sometimes that's the underdog.
- 3–8%: normal and believable. This is where long-term value lives.
- 10%+: check the news first. Bookmakers are rarely that wrong; the model may be missing an injury, new manager or rotation. The app marks these "⚠ Check news", and the assistant can look up team news for you.
4.EV: what you'd make on average
Expected value is the average profit per £1 staked if our chances are right, over many bets. A pick at +10% EV still loses often. It just pays more than it costs over time.
5.Accumulators
An acca multiplies the odds, and it also multiplies the edges and the risk. Four 70% favourites together only win about 1 in 4 times. Our tips:
- Every leg should have a positive edge, ideally 4–8%.
- 2–4 legs beats 6–8. Fewer legs, fewer ways to lose.
- Check any "⚠ Check news" leg before including it.
- Make sure your bookmaker's odds are the same or higher than shown.
- Stake small. Most accas lose, even good ones.
6.Stakes
Suggested stakes use a cautious version of the Kelly formula: bigger edge, bigger stake, but never more than a small slice of your bankroll. Set your own bankroll in the app.
7.The honest bit
No model can promise winners. Football is random, and bookmakers are good at their job. Sidefoot gives you a second opinion with real numbers behind it. Picks are model output, not betting advice. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+.