Bundesliga predictions: our chance vs the bookie's
Sidefoot compares our own chance for every Bundesliga match with the chance in the bookmaker's odds. This week we cover 9 fixtures; 7 Bundesliga picks are in our public record.
This week's Bundesliga fixtures
| Kick-off · Match | Our chance H / D / A | Bookie's chance H / D / A | Biggest edge |
|---|---|---|---|
Sat 24 Oct, 14:30 FSV Mainz 05 v Werder Bremen | 59% / 19% / 22% | 57% / 22% / 21% | Home +2% |
Sat 24 Oct, 14:30 Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt | 66% / 16% / 18% | 65% / 18% / 16% | Away +1% |
Sat 24 Oct, 14:30 FC Augsburg v Union Berlin | 41% / 26% / 33% | 51% / 24% / 25% | Away +8% |
Sat 24 Oct, 14:30 VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Mönchengladbach | 61% / 18% / 21% | 69% / 17% / 14% | Away +6% |
Sat 24 Oct, 14:30 SC Paderborn 07 v Hamburger SV | 50% / 22% / 28% | 40% / 26% / 34% | Home +10% |
Sat 24 Oct, 14:30 1. FC Köln v FC Schalke 04 | 58% / 19% / 23% | 47% / 24% / 29% | Home +10% ⚠ Check news |
Sat 24 Oct, 14:30 SC Freiburg v Bayern München | 20% / 17% / 64% | 14% / 16% / 70% | Home +5% |
Sat 24 Oct, 14:30 1899 Hoffenheim v Bayer Leverkusen | 29% / 21% / 51% | 35% / 24% / 41% | Away +10% |
Sat 24 Oct, 14:30 RB Leipzig v SV Elversberg | 67% / 16% / 17% | 69% / 18% / 13% | Away +4% |
Our Bundesliga record
- Settled picks
- 7
- Counted picks won
- 5 of 7
- Not counted
- 0
- Borussia Dortmund 2–0 Hamburger SV29 Aug · Pick: Home win @ 1.33Won
- RB Leipzig 3–0 Borussia Mönchengladbach29 Aug · Pick: Home win @ 1.53Won
- FSV Mainz 05 0–0 SC Paderborn 0729 Aug · Pick: Away win @ 4.72Lost
- Union Berlin 3–3 Eintracht Frankfurt29 Aug · Pick: Home win @ 2.53Lost
- SV Elversberg 3–2 Bayer Leverkusen29 Aug · Pick: Home win @ 4.77Won
- 1. FC Köln 3–2 1899 Hoffenheim29 Aug · Pick: Home win @ 2.98Won
- Bayern München 5–1 VfB Stuttgart28 Aug · Pick: Home win @ 1.29Won
Early results are positive but the sample is far too small to mean anything. Past results don't predict future ones.
See every pick in the full record →How we model Bundesliga matches
Every Bundesliga club has an Elo rating that moves with each result and the margin of victory. We adjust it for expected goals (xG) and for team news such as injuries and suspensions. Our final chance blends 60% of that model with 40% of the bookmaker's own price, so we only flag games where the gap is real. How it works
Questions
Are these Bundesliga tips?
No. Sidefoot is a research tool; it shows where our chance and the bookmaker's differ.
How often are the picks right?
5 of 7 counted Bundesliga picks have won so far. Every pick, losses included, is in our public record at https://playsidefoot.app/record.
When is this page updated?
When odds and line-ups change before kick-off.
18+ · BeGambleAware.org · Research tool, not betting advice
Last updated Mon 19 Oct, 19:13 (UK time)