Ligue 1 predictions: our chance vs the bookie's
Sidefoot compares our own chance for every Ligue 1 match with the chance in the bookmaker's odds. This week we cover 9 fixtures; 8 Ligue 1 picks are in our public record.
This week's Ligue 1 fixtures
| Kick-off · Match | Our chance H / D / A | Bookie's chance H / D / A | Biggest edge |
|---|---|---|---|
Sat 24 Oct, 16:00 Marseille v Le Havre | 64% / 17% / 19% | 61% / 20% / 19% | Home +3% |
Sat 24 Oct, 16:00 Monaco v Lille | 47% / 25% / 28% | 44% / 30% / 26% | Home +3% |
Sat 24 Oct, 16:00 Toulouse v Estac Troyes | 64% / 18% / 19% | 59% / 23% / 19% | Home +5% |
Sat 24 Oct, 16:00 Stade Brestois 29 v Nice | 40% / 28% / 32% | 43% / 29% / 28% | Away +4% |
Sat 24 Oct, 16:00 Lens v Paris FC | 43% / 25% / 32% | 40% / 26% / 34% | Home +3% |
Sat 24 Oct, 16:00 Angers v Lorient | 34% / 28% / 38% | 34% / 29% / 37% | Away +1% |
Sat 24 Oct, 16:00 Rennes v Strasbourg | 58% / 19% / 23% | 55% / 22% / 24% | Home +3% |
Sat 24 Oct, 16:00 Auxerre v Le Mans | 40% / 27% / 33% | 45% / 26% / 29% | Away +4% |
Sun 25 Oct, 19:45 Paris Saint Germain v Lyon | 66% / 16% / 18% | 70% / 17% / 13% | Away +5% |
Our Ligue 1 record
- Settled picks
- 8
- Counted picks won
- 4 of 7
- Not counted
- 1
- Lyon 2–1 Nice18 Oct · Pick: Home win @ 1.81 · not countedWon
- Rennes 2–2 Paris Saint Germain23 Aug · Pick: Away win @ 5.50Lost
- Le Havre 0–1 Monaco23 Aug · Pick: Away win @ 1.92Won
- Angers 0–2 Lille23 Aug · Pick: Away win @ 1.75Won
- Nice 0–0 Lorient22 Aug · Pick: Home win @ 2.18Lost
- Toulouse 0–2 Lyon22 Aug · Pick: Away win @ 3.03Won
- Le Mans 2–2 Stade Brestois 2922 Aug · Pick: Home win @ 2.61Lost
- Lens 5–2 Auxerre22 Aug · Pick: Home win @ 1.53Won
Early results are positive but the sample is far too small to mean anything. Past results don't predict future ones.
See every pick in the full record →How we model Ligue 1 matches
Every Ligue 1 club has an Elo rating that moves with each result and the margin of victory. We adjust it for expected goals (xG) and for team news such as injuries and suspensions. Our final chance blends 60% of that model with 40% of the bookmaker's own price, so we only flag games where the gap is real. How it works
Questions
Are these Ligue 1 tips?
No. Sidefoot is a research tool; it shows where our chance and the bookmaker's differ.
How often are the picks right?
4 of 7 counted Ligue 1 picks have won so far. Every pick, losses included, is in our public record at https://playsidefoot.app/record.
When is this page updated?
When odds and line-ups change before kick-off.
18+ · BeGambleAware.org · Research tool, not betting advice
Last updated Mon 19 Oct, 19:12 (UK time)