La Liga predictions: our chance vs the bookie's
Sidefoot compares our own chance for every La Liga match with the chance in the bookmaker's odds. This week we cover 12 fixtures; 12 La Liga picks are in our public record.
This week's La Liga fixtures
| Kick-off · Match | Our chance H / D / A | Bookie's chance H / D / A | Biggest edge |
|---|---|---|---|
Mon 19 Oct, 20:00 Getafe v Rayo Vallecano | 42% / 26% / 32% | 31% / 33% / 36% | Home +11% ⚠ Check news |
Wed 21 Oct, 19:00 Levante v Athletic Club | 30% / 27% / 43% | 25% / 31% / 44% | Home +4% |
Sun 25 Oct, 16:00 Barcelona v Real Madrid | 56% / 19% / 25% | 61% / 17% / 22% | Away +3% |
Sun 25 Oct, 16:00 Athletic Club v Getafe | 60% / 19% / 21% | 58% / 23% / 19% | Home +2% |
Sun 25 Oct, 16:00 Valencia v Villarreal | 30% / 24% / 46% | 31% / 26% / 44% | Away +3% |
Sun 25 Oct, 16:00 Celta Vigo v Real Betis | 34% / 26% / 40% | 35% / 27% / 38% | Away +2% |
Sun 25 Oct, 16:00 Alaves v Malaga | 48% / 25% / 27% | 54% / 26% / 20% | Away +7% |
Sun 25 Oct, 16:00 Rayo Vallecano v Elche | 48% / 24% / 27% | 54% / 25% / 21% | Away +6% |
Sun 25 Oct, 16:00 Racing Santander v Espanyol | 44% / 24% / 32% | 38% / 26% / 35% | Home +6% |
Sun 25 Oct, 16:00 Sevilla v Osasuna | 62% / 19% / 19% | 49% / 28% / 23% | Home +13% ⚠ Check news |
Sun 25 Oct, 16:00 Real Sociedad v Levante | 61% / 18% / 21% | 55% / 23% / 22% | Home +6% |
Sun 25 Oct, 16:00 Atletico Madrid v Deportivo La Coruna | 74% / 15% / 11% | 74% / 16% / 10% | Away +1% |
Our La Liga record
- Settled picks
- 12
- Counted picks won
- 6 of 11
- Not counted
- 1
- Real Madrid 4–1 Sevilla18 Oct · Pick: Away win @ 11.90 · not countedLost
- Celta Vigo 0–2 Athletic Club30 Aug · Pick: Home win @ 2.47Lost
- Deportivo La Coruna 3–1 Valencia30 Aug · Pick: Home win @ 2.83Won
- Sevilla 1–3 Atletico Madrid29 Aug · Pick: Home win @ 3.37Lost
- Barcelona 2–0 Athletic Club27 Aug · Pick: Home win @ 1.39Won
- Real Madrid 4–1 Real Sociedad26 Aug · Pick: Home win @ 1.38Won
- Valencia 0–1 Real Betis25 Aug · Pick: Away win @ 2.70Won
- Malaga 1–1 Deportivo La Coruna24 Aug · Pick: Home win @ 2.48Lost
- Getafe 1–0 Racing Santander23 Aug · Pick: Away win @ 3.94Lost
- Atletico Madrid 2–2 Villarreal23 Aug · Pick: Home win @ 1.88Lost
Early results are positive but the sample is far too small to mean anything. Past results don't predict future ones.
See every pick in the full record →How we model La Liga matches
Every La Liga club has an Elo rating that moves with each result and the margin of victory. We adjust it for expected goals (xG) and for team news such as injuries and suspensions. Our final chance blends 60% of that model with 40% of the bookmaker's own price, so we only flag games where the gap is real. How it works
Questions
Are these La Liga tips?
No. Sidefoot is a research tool; it shows where our chance and the bookmaker's differ.
How often are the picks right?
6 of 11 counted La Liga picks have won so far. Every pick, losses included, is in our public record at https://playsidefoot.app/record.
When is this page updated?
When odds and line-ups change before kick-off.
18+ · BeGambleAware.org · Research tool, not betting advice
Last updated Mon 19 Oct, 19:13 (UK time)