Premier League predictions: our chance vs the bookie's
Sidefoot compares our own chance for every Premier League match with the chance in the bookmaker's odds. This week we cover 11 fixtures; 14 Premier League picks are in our public record.
This week's Premier League fixtures
| Kick-off · Match | Our chance H / D / A | Bookie's chance H / D / A | Biggest edge |
|---|---|---|---|
Mon 19 Oct, 20:00 Tottenham v Coventry | 60% / 19% / 21% | 62% / 21% / 17% | Away +4% |
Sat 24 Oct, 15:00 Manchester United v Bournemouth | 63% / 18% / 19% | 51% / 25% / 24% | Home +12% ⚠ Check news |
Sat 24 Oct, 15:00 Liverpool v Brighton | 51% / 21% / 27% | 45% / 24% / 31% | Home +7% |
Sat 24 Oct, 15:00 Chelsea v Tottenham | 55% / 21% / 24% | 55% / 23% / 22% | Away +2% |
Sat 24 Oct, 15:00 Crystal Palace v Newcastle | 38% / 26% / 36% | 33% / 27% / 40% | Home +6% |
Sat 24 Oct, 15:00 Hull City v Brentford | 33% / 25% / 42% | 21% / 24% / 55% | Home +11% ⚠ Check news |
Sat 24 Oct, 15:00 Aston Villa v Manchester City | 20% / 18% / 62% | 22% / 22% / 56% | Away +6% |
Sat 24 Oct, 15:00 Coventry v Fulham | 47% / 22% / 31% | 32% / 27% / 41% | Home +15% ⚠ Check news |
Sat 24 Oct, 15:00 Arsenal v Everton | 69% / 17% / 14% | 68% / 21% / 11% | Away +4% |
Sat 24 Oct, 15:00 Ipswich v Nottingham Forest | 46% / 22% / 31% | 31% / 28% / 42% | Home +16% ⚠ Check news |
Sat 24 Oct, 15:00 Sunderland v Leeds | 33% / 27% / 40% | 32% / 30% / 37% | Away +2% |
Our Premier League record
- Settled picks
- 14
- Counted picks won
- 8 of 13
- Not counted
- 1
- Aston Villa 0–1 Arsenal31 Aug · Pick: Home win @ 4.55Lost
- Chelsea 4–3 Brighton30 Aug · Pick: Home win @ 2.30Won
- Leeds 1–1 Brentford30 Aug · Pick: Home win @ 2.89Lost
- Tottenham 0–2 Newcastle29 Aug · Pick: Home win @ 2.19Lost
- Bournemouth 1–1 Everton29 Aug · Pick: Away win @ 4.38Lost
- Crystal Palace 1–4 Manchester City28 Aug · Pick: Away win @ 1.64Won
- Fulham 2–3 Chelsea24 Aug · Pick: Away win @ 1.87Won
- Newcastle 2–2 Liverpool23 Aug · Pick: Away win @ 1.90Lost
- Manchester City 2–1 Bournemouth23 Aug · Pick: Home win @ 1.50Won
- Brentford 3–0 Tottenham22 Aug · Pick: Away win @ 3.30 · not countedLost
Early results are positive but the sample is far too small to mean anything. Past results don't predict future ones.
See every pick in the full record →How we model Premier League matches
Every Premier League club has an Elo rating that moves with each result and the margin of victory. We adjust it for expected goals (xG) and for team news such as injuries and suspensions. Our final chance blends 60% of that model with 40% of the bookmaker's own price, so we only flag games where the gap is real. How it works
Questions
Are these Premier League tips?
No. Sidefoot is a research tool; it shows where our chance and the bookmaker's differ.
How often are the picks right?
8 of 13 counted Premier League picks have won so far. Every pick, losses included, is in our public record at https://playsidefoot.app/record.
When is this page updated?
When odds and line-ups change before kick-off.
18+ · BeGambleAware.org · Research tool, not betting advice
Last updated Mon 19 Oct, 19:12 (UK time)